Askren Vs Lawler Odds

I think Robbie Lawler is disrespected here. Odds were 3.50 when bookies opened their picks and now they're a bit lower but I still want to take this bet. Robbie Lawler is ex welterweight champion and he lost to Woodley via quick knockout but that was really a bad matchup for him because of Woodley's power. Here Lawler is the one that can hurt Ben Askren on foot. Obviously Askren is much bigger favorite because literally everybody's expecting that Askren will just wrestlef**k Lawler but is he really? That's the big question and where I find value. Askren fought with subpar competition his whole life and even though he's undefeated he retired and then un-retired just so he can come back and compete in the UFC. Lawler beat Cerrone via decision after losing the belt and in his last fight he lost to Dos Anjos via decision. After a long perido of time off for Lawler, he's my value pick of this card. Askren's debut in the UFC and he's not the one with KO power, Lawler is, Askren can just hope he will be able to wrestle Robbie for 3 rounds which will be pretty hard, Lawler was all state in wrestling and football when he was young so he's no slouch to take down and if Askren won't be able to even for a minute, he's done.

Yes Lawler is a value bet here in my opinion he sould be lower than that but I understand why books are favoring Askren heavily. First before Askren is undefeated, second because there is a lot of hype behind him because he trash talk on social media and trolled every body basically. And third and most importantly, because they believe Askren is the khabib version of welterweight, and here it’s a huge NO. He is not, this is not the same wrestling as Khabib is more based on projection, mix between judo and wrestling, and Askren is pure wrestling, very college wrestling style. Now, we seen that Lawler faded a little bit through the years, maybe because of USADA maybe because his head is not on fighting anymore I dont know but I believe he is not the same fighter than he was 5 years ago, and if he was able to be taken down by Dos Anjos and loose a decision against him (wich he is not really a wrestling specialist) I am not confident in backing him to win against Askren, even though I agree with you there is some value on him I cant really trust him on the fact that he really wants that win and that hunger will come again, that’s why I dont bet on him here

I completely agree about Lawler`s recent performances and Dos Anjos fight, logically if Dos Anjos wrestled hime then surely Askren shold be able too as well, hence te odds. This is why I`m basically counting on that short period of time where (and if) they will stand up and trade few strikes. I`m counting on those few seconds or half a minute where Lawler will have huge advantage. Basically, I`m betting against the fact that Askren will hold Lawler down for 15 minutes, I personally believe that if this fight only lasts 1 minute standing, value on Lawler is worth it because he can finish him in that 1 minute of standing.